By The Big R

 

The Illini will be hurt by Chester Frazier's absence. Ryan's upset special will not be.

Before in turn in those brackets for your office pools, I know you all want to know what the Big R thinks of the B10’s first round match-ups, so here you go:

 

Michigan v. Clemson: If Manny Harris absolutely goes off, the Wolverines have a chance. He’s exploded about eight times this year, out of 33 games. By my calculation that puts the Wolverines chances at about 1-4. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not in love with this Clemson team they are as erratic as Michigan was this year. Its just that Clemson’s worst is better than Michigan worst, and their better is better than Michigan’s better. On a possession by possession basis Clemson scored .08 points more than they gave up, Michigan on the other hand gave up .02 more points per possession than they scored. Not good. Clemson gets the nod.

Ohio State V. Siena: Here’s what sucks about this matchup for the OSU players. Siena is good enough to beat them, but not good enough to earn them respect. If they win, the story is Mighty OSU knocks of tiny Siena, who cares. And, if they lose, they just lost to a team no one can place on a map. Fact is Siena does have the horses to run an uptempo high-scoring attack, and if OSU lets them do that, Siena wins the game. But if OSU dictates the tempo and this games stays in the 50-60’s range OSU wins. Ohio State.

MSU V. Robert Morris: MSU in a walk. Robbert Morris isn’t a bad team, they just don’t have they talent to even really irritate this Spartans team. MSU does have trouble scoring at times, but I’ll be surprised is this isn’t a double digit W for them.

Purdue V. Northern Iowa: This is actually a more interesting matchup than you would think if you just looked at the name of the schools. ESPN bracket notes says about N. Iowa “so many weapons!…woe is the team that draws Northern Iowa.” That last statement seems like a stretch for a team that didn’t actually beat in one I find respectable, they certainly didn’t get embarrassed by all of them. Problem for them is that although Purdue isn’t as good as they were last year, they’ve managed to heat up at the right time. Their defense alone should carry them past the Panthers. Purdue.

Wisconsin V. Florida State: These teams are actually kind of similar. When you look at their tempo-free numbers these teams are almost identical. FSU plays at a faster pace but on a possession-by-possession basis both teams play great defense but are somewhat suspect when it comes to putting the biscuit in the basket. What’s even more surprising is that if you had to say one team had an advantage when looking at these numbers, you’d have to give it to Wisconsin. But nuts to that, I just have a feeling this is going to be a close one, and when the Seminoles need a bucket they can turn to All-American caliber guard Toney Douglas. Where do the Badgers go? The answer is home. Florida State.

Minnesota V. Texas: Speaking of teams that have no where to turn when they absolutely need to score a couple points. Nothing has been more painful than watching the Gophers try to score in crunch time, except perhaps watching the Illini try to score at any point in the game. On the flip side, the Longhorns have a cold-blooded assassin in AJ Abrams. Problem is, I’ve lost wayyyy too much money betting on the leaderless, heartless Horns. Gophers.

Illinois V. Western Kentucky: I HATE Illinois this year. Not on a personal level, they haven’t cost me enough money for me to hate them as people. But I really do have watching the boring offensively crippled squad. Plus what little offensive glue has be provided by PG Chester Frazier who is out for this matchup. Plus, W. Kentucky is 11-1 in their last 12 versus the Illini’s 7-5. Add it together and you got Ryan’s upset special. Western Kentucky.